Economic factors are impacting American women aged 18 to 35’s decision to have children, according to a survey done by progressive think tanks Next100 and GenForward.
Today’s young families are confronted by astronomical health care costs and college student loan debt that result in no available discretionary spending. Within the last four years, the COVID-19 pandemic and illegal immigration have influenced America’s birth rate. Because of this, the mean age of women at their first birth in the United States is now 29.6 as opposed to 21.5 in 1960, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
Inflation is influencing the decision on when or if women and couples will start families. According to the United States Department of Agriculture, the average cost to raise a child in 2022 from birth to 17 years old is over $292,000, compared to $25,000 in 1960. That is an increase of 1,068% and the difference of inflation is close to 750% in the same time period.
New York City has a notoriously high cost of living compared to that of upstate New York, and data from the Day Care Council of New York states that the average cost of childcare is $1,300 per month in the metropolis.
In the 58 years between 1960 and 2018, increasing inflation has resulted in declining birth rates. According to the CDC’s statistics on crude birth rates, the birth rate from 1960 to 2018 was cut in half, from 118 live births per 1,000 women, to 59.1.
Inflation has also had a disproportionate effect over the course of 58 years, which remains a top reason why younger couples aged 18 to 35 cannot afford to have children. Disease and shifting global migration patterns have also affected birth rates. In the six years between 2014 and 2020, the birth rate declined by 16%.
Following the initial outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020, however, the birth rate increased by a modest 1% for the first time in seven years. This hopeful deviation was short-lived though, as according to a 2020 CDC report, the birth rate declined by 1% from 2021 to 2022.
Dr. Phillip Levine, a researcher at Brookings Institute who specializes in demographics and fertility, said the main reason for the decline following the initial outbreak of COVID-19 was the fear surrounding the lingering virus.
“Initially, COVID led to a reduction in the birthrate,” Levine said. “And that reduction was associated with the fact that when people feel that uneasy with their lives, which we all did, that doesn’t feel like the right time to have a child. Thankfully, that feeling went away as we learned to live with the disease and the instability fell away.”
In the face of increasing prices in starter homes compounded by burgeoning college debt, educated couples settling down to start families are also challenged with rising childcare costs. The declining birthrate has spillover effects in the economy, as fewer workers and taxpayers fund less social welfare programs such as Social Security and Medicaid.
As it stands, the implications of falling birth rates for the United States and the West are uncertain. In a newly released study by the U.S. Census Bureau, the projected high-immigration scenario that will boost the population to 435 million people by 2100 will not suffice in substituting the current birth rate.
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