The political situation in Spain, my country, has become very interesting in recent years, increasingly so in the past months. The truth is that since the results of the last general elections in Spain were announced, which were July 23, the public conversation and the political environment has been more than lively. The Popular Party came first with 137 deputies while the PSOE, a party that has currently governed for five years and is led by President Pedro Sánchez, came second with 121 deputies. In third place was the far-right party, VOX, with 33 deputies and in fourth place was the left-wing party, Sumar, with 31 deputies. Although those mentioned above are national parties, we must also take into account the local regionalist and nationalist parties that have the key and control of governance at this time in Spain.

These parties are ERC (7 deputies) and JxCAT (7 deputies), which are Catalan nationalists, left and right, respectively. Furthermore, Bildu (6 deputies) and PNV (5 deputies), Basque nationalists, are the first on the left and the second on the right. Then there is the BNG, which is a left-wing Galician nationalist party with one deputy; another is Canarian Coalition, a right-wing regionalist party in the Canary Islands; there is also, with a deputy, UPN, a right-wing regionalist party from Navarra.

Based on these results, the configuration of parliamentary majorities must be articulated so that a candidate achieves 176 votes or more, or more votes in favor than against, in the second round to achieve his investiture as president of the government. The candidate of the popular party, Alberto Núñez Feijoó, was proposed by King Felipe VI to try to be invested as head of Government but failed. He had his chance last week, with an investiture in which he ran without sufficient support and lost both the first and second votes.

After a second round of contacts between the King of Spain and all political forces they must propose another candidate for the presidency of the government, who can count on the support of the Congress of Deputies and obtain the majority of the chamber to be president. This time the king has proposed Pedro Sánchez as a candidate for the presidency of the government. He will have to obtain sufficient support to be invested by adding more than 176 votes or more votes in favor than against.

  He is going to be very complicated since the small localist, regionalist and nationalist parties are reluctant to give their support without guarantees of compliance with demanding agreements that they demand from the central government. President Sánchez is going to have to negotiate hard with these parties, who can support him to achieve his investiture. The fact that there is a new president of the government depends on the support of many of these smaller parties which demand the transfer of powers and large economic sums of money for their communities as well as investments. In them the president will have to decide if the government can do it. The most complicated issue to negotiate is going to be the amnesty requested as a condition by the JXCAT party to resolve the conflict in Catalonia. It will also be difficult to negotiate with ERC, a party whose leaders will ask a lot to support the investiture of President Sánchez (PSOE). The holding of a self-determination referendum in Catalonia that is binding, therefore, the president is not going to have an easy time achieving his investiture since he is also going to have to negotiate with the nationalists of Galicia and the Basque country, who also want benefits for his own communities.

Personally, I believe that the Spanish president’s movements are going to be very carefully measured, as well as his political decisions regarding pacts to achieve his own investiture. I believe that the president wants to start a new progressive and ambitious project for the country, but before he needs the support of Congress, he has to negotiate many things with the other political groups, and it is not going to be easy or fast. It requires time and patience. In fact, the most complicated thing is going to be granting a self-determination referendum to Catalonia, whose legality is in doubt. It is probably more viable to grant an amnesty as requested by Puigdemont’s party (JXCAT) to solve the problem in Catalonia and an amnesty for the irregularities committed by the leaders of the process. 

We will see how it all ends. I am not sure how it will go but it will undoubtedly be an interesting few weeks for political enthusiasts.