I am not a virologist or a statistician. I am a citizen who has followed the trends of COVID-19 for over a year, desperately hoping good trends would stick and bad trends would break. We are about to enter a good trend, at least in New York. 

The past 13 months has been the equivalent of a boxing fight when it comes to COVID-19. The fight has had different themes throughout the exhausting year which has been our new reality. It is entering its final rounds of this life and death fight, and finally the opposition to COVID-19 is a worthy fighter, the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines in America. 

The final rounds of this fight will be a regional battle as well. Nationalism can be removed from the equation. The weekly articles concerning vaccine hesitancy and the allocation of the miracle vaccines will be less meaningful. Herd immunity at this point is not a thing America can achieve, but pockets of the country will get closer than others.

The basis of vaccine hesitancy centers around two major groups in the U.S., Republican males and the underserved people of health care “deserts.” The Republican male ideology is that a citizen should be hesitant about being told what to do by their federal government and that it is a personal decision to get the vaccine or not, much to the chagrin of health officials who have stressed the importance to approach herd immunity and not have gaps in protection. The health care “deserts” of America will be convinced easier to take the vaccine but are difficult to reach. 

That is why the final rounds of this fight will be a regional fight. For states like New York, it will be easier to get control of COVID-19. The city votes Democrat and is more likely to listen to Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who has made a push for all to get vaccinated as soon as possible. 

According to the Bloomberg vaccine data tracker, the numbers of cases in New York has started to turn down, as the number of fully vaccinated New Yorkers approaches one-in-three. This shows the vaccine is overcoming the worrying B.1.526 COVID-19 variant seen in New York City, which most likely originated in Manhattan, according to Dr. Anthony Fauci. That variant is starting to become the dominant strain throughout the entire state. 

The vaccine will continue to overcome the variant and eventually drop cases to a low level, paired with the seasonal trends seen in New York last summer and herd immunity might be approached. 

Herd immunity changes by the time of year and how rapidly the dominant strain of COVID-19 in the area can spread. A mark of 60% of vaccinated people might be enough this summer, where 85% vaccinated might be needed for the winter. This virus does not play by exact rules, and the approach to containing the virus will not be black and white. 

With that said, different areas of the country will see spikes in COVID-19 due to low vaccine numbers and social mobility. Texas has reopened fully and could be at high risk for a surge if the vaccine numbers do not beat the spread of variants. States like New York could be safe from another surge due to waiting for higher vaccination rates before opening. 

Finally, the local aspect of the regional COVID-19 battle. If SUNY decides to mandate the COVID-19 vaccine for all students this fall semester, then herd immunity would be easily  reached on campus. The weekly testing could be eliminated, and the level of mobility students could have would be almost unlimited. 

Policy, demographics and the state of COVID-19 spread will decide how your region is doing in COVID-19. Lucky for New Yorkers, the policy makers and the mindset of residents will make for a much more enjoyable summer.

Photo from Flickr