With the Academy Awards airing this Sunday, there has been plenty of speculation as to which actors and which films will take home the major awards on Hollywood’s biggest night. However, following the patterns created by previous award shows such as the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Screen Actors Guild and the BAFTAs, it seems like this year’s award ceremony will be void of any upsets or underdog victories.
Typically, in any given awards season, there are a few frontrunners that clean house, winning every major award, broadcasting themselves as the Oscar winner before the night even happens.
From an acting standpoint, it would be blasphemous to assume that anyone can overtake Renee Zellweger in “Judy” and Joaquin Phoenix in “Joker,” in the Leading Actor categories, or Brad Pitt in “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” and Laura Dern in “Marriage Story,” for the Supporting Actor categories. All four of these actors have won every major award from the Golden Globes to the BAFTAs, so there appears to be no room for competition or surprises come this Sunday.
However, there are a few categories that may lead to some surprises. Let us break down two of the major Oscar categories and assess who is most likely to take home gold.
Best Picture
Who Will Win: “1917”
Sam Mendes’ (“Spectre”) World War I epic has swept every award show thus far. Academy voters love historical films, especially those who bring something new to the table. While the whole “one-shot” gimmick can be perceived as just that, a gimmick, it worked wonders for the film, creating an atmosphere and scale that moviegoers of all tastes were enamored by. It may be the dull, obvious choice, but it is not inherently the wrong one.
Who Should Win: “Parasite”
What Bong Joon-ho (“Okja”) was able to create with “Parasite” was so powerful that it managed to make waves from South Korea all the way to the United States. The film is the only contender that can potentially knock “1917” down off of its pedestal and take home the night’s biggest award. It is also the most original film released this year and that may be enough to win over Academy voters. It is also the obvious frontrunner to take home Best Foreign Language Film, which may be the Academy’s idea of a consolation prize.
Best Director
Who Will Win: Sam Mendes, “1917”
When a film is nominated for Best Picture, it can only be assumed that the filmmaker behind it has a shot at winning Best Director. Mendes will take home gold for two reasons. One, he has won all the major awards thus far. Two, what he was able to accomplish from a visual standpoint, crafting a film that looks like it was filmed in one continuous shot while not making it boring or dizzying for an audience, but enthralling and visually dynamic, is a quality very rarely found in a filmmaker.
Who Should Win: Bong Joon-ho, “Parsite”
It is not unheard of for the Best Picture and Best Director awards at the Oscars to be split between the two biggest contenders. Just look at 2017 when Damien Chazelle (“First Man”) won best Director while Barry Jenkins’ (”If Beale Street Could Talk”) film “Moonlight” took home Best Picture. This could be the case that allows Joon-ho to take home an Oscar other than Best Foreign Language Film. He created a dark comedy, thriller and satire all in one, maintaining a consistent tone while using the story to flesh out the characters, resulting in a film that has many film critics vying for it to take home every award it is up for. The award will go likely to Mendes, but if anyone can overtake him, it is Joon-ho.
Overall, it may appear that this year’s ceremony will be a bore, however, do not underestimate the impact “Parasite” has had on western audiences. Whether it be Best Picture, Best Director or even Best Original Screenplay, “Parasite” may be the dark horse that runs away with all the gold by the end of this Sunday.
Image from Variety via YouTube
