The 2018-19 NCAA Tournament in Div. III men’s hockey will have different criteria for at-large bids than in years past due to the implementation of the PairWise Rankings that have been imported from Div. I.

One team looking to benefit from this move away from a selection committee is Oswego State, who went on a three-game skid to end the 2017-18 campaign, did not win the SUNYAC and missed the NCAA Tournament.

“With the committee, how much they chose to weigh each of the areas, there is no guidance,” Oswego State head coach Ed Gosek said. “It was up to the committee to determine what percentage each of the criteria would account for.”

For context, Gosek’s comments are explaining the five main categories that are used to determine which team deserves a bid over another: win percentage, quality of win index, head to head, common opponents, and record vs. ranked opponents.

Examining Gosek’s comments leads to another clue, suggesting that the committee did not consider all five of these things equally, whereas the PairWise gives all five categories equal weight.

On selection day in 2018, the last at-large bid looked like it was coming down to Oswego State or Utica College, with Marian University having longshot odds. 

Much to everyone’s surprise at the time, Marian University ended up being the team selected, with the Lakers on the outside looking in. At the time, the thought was that Oswego State fell victim to recency bias from the committee due to its SUNYAC semifinal exit at the hands of a lesser opponent in SUNY Fredonia.

With the implementation of the Pairwise, there is now a definitive blueprint to decide how these teams get into the tournament. As the accompanying graphic depicts (lower left corner), the Lakers were deemed lesser than Marian University.  Despite having a stronger win percentage, they still managed to lose out or not get a point on the rest of the categories.

The Lakers found themselves in an identical position to where they were last season heading into the SUNYAC semifinal with a record of 18-5-2. The team has been firmly entrenched in the top five of the PairWise every time the weekly rankings have been released this season, so their chances to make the tournament despite a semifinal loss last week against Plattsburgh State would have remained high.

Now that the game against the Cardinals is out of the way and they have come out victorious in two of their last three games compared to the zero wins in the same games last year, the road to the NCAA Tournament is much clearer.

Because the SUNYAC is eligible for an automatic bid, if the Lakers are able to manage an upset in the conference final on the road against SUNY Geneseo, they will get into the tournament.

But if the underdog Lakers fall this weekend, the likelihood for the Lakers to receive one of the four at-large bids is very high.

Outside of the University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point, which is not eligible for an automatic bid for winning their conference but is undoubtedly the best Div. III team in the country, is a lock to get an at-large bid even if they lose this weekend to the University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire.

The one contest that affects the Lakers’ tournament chances is the NCHA Harris Cup Championship between No. 5 St. Norbert College and No. 7 Adrian College, who both sit behind No. 4 Oswego State in the Pairwise.

The winner of the Harris Cup will receive an automatic NCAA bid, meaning the loser has to compete for one of the three remaining at large bids.

Presuming higher-seeded St. Norbert College wins its conference, that leaves Adrian College and Oswego State as the two highest-seeded non-conference champions in terms of the Pairwise.

To sum all that up, the SUNYAC semifinal win over Plattsburgh State was enough to push the Lakers over the edge. Based on the numbers, Oswego State is in the driver’s seat to receive the second of four at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament.

If this prediction comes true, the Lakers will see their second NCAA Tournament bid in the last three seasons.