The Oswegonian

The Independent Student Newspaper of Oswego State

DATE

Nov. 21, 2024

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Trickle down analytics: How Oswego State sports break down advanced stats

Over the past few years, one thing is becoming more evident: Analytics have taken over the sporting world.

Words and phrases such as VORPFenwick and WOWY have become second nature to stat heads. Even just saying the word “analytics” in regards to sports will inevitably lead to a heated argument on the intellectual dumpster fire we call Twitter. And if the casual fan tries to dive too deep, they will wind up in an hour-and-a-half rabbit hole that will make them wish they had taken the blue pill.

As sports evolve and new ways to evaluate performance are created, the people in charge of teams, as well as the people playing, are forced to adapt. The professional leagues have a large effect on their minor league teams, even down to the college level.

At Oswego State, the men’s hockey, men’s basketball and baseball programs all finished as regular season champions in the SUNYAC. Men’s hockey and baseball were nationally ranked, and the men’s basketball and baseball teams both won their respective SUNYAC Championship. It is not an ordinary program for any of these three sports, meaning they also want any edge they can get.

The hockey team uses several different numbers. PDO is a big one for assistant coach Mark Digby, in addition to penalty kill statistics like puck recoveries and possession time, as well as 5v5 zone exits.

While Corsi% is calculated as a team after every game, it is not the most imperative stat the team employs.

Most hockey fans are familiar with plus-minus, which tracks how many even-strength goals a player is on the ice for, both for his team and against. Digby, with head coach Ed Gosek, use a home-brew variation of plus-minus, which tracks plus-minus on scoring chances.

“It’s not a whole lot different than regular plus-minus, except for the body is bigger,” Digby said. “So, in a 2-1 game, there are only three opportunities to be a plus or a minus, where in that same game, there’s probably seven or eight scoring chances per team. So, you’re going from three instances to 14 instances.”

Assistant coach Mark Digby (top left), head coach Ed Gosek (top middle) and graduate assistant Jon Whitelaw (top right) look on during the 2017 SUNYAC Final 3-2 loss to SUNY Plattsburgh. (Dominick Lioto | The Oswegonian)
Assistant coach Mark Digby (top left), head coach Ed Gosek (top middle) and graduate assistant Jon Whitelaw (top right) look on during the 2017 SUNYAC Final loss to SUNY Plattsburgh. (Dominick Lioto | The Oswegonian)

Digby compares it to finding a Corsi%, but instead of calculating shot attempts, it determines scoring chances for and against.

In Div. III athletics, the weight put on analytics depends on access to these numbers. What separates Div. I programs and professional teams from Div. III programs is access and technology.

“The problem with analytics at our level is that if they’re accurate, they’re great. If they’re not accurate, they’re making you worse,” Digby said.

Part of the reason they are accurate at Oswego State is because of the number of eyes they have. Most Div. III hockey teams have a full-time head coach with a part-time assistant, whereas the Lakers have Gosek and Digby, both full time, a graduate assistant coach, two part-time assistants and a goalie coach.

And while Digby likes numbers, he knows they do not tell the full story.

“You can have all these numbers and it’s great, but the purpose of these numbers is to coach the team,” Digby said.

Analytics, to Digby, is another side to the same story of traditional numbers as well as the eye test. They are all ways to evaluate players, so it makes sense that one of the top programs in Div. III hockey wants any edge they can use to be a little bit better.

In the same fashion of the Laker hockey team, head coach Jason Leone of the Laker basketball team shares a lot of the same views.

This season, the Laker basketball team used a program that accurately tracks offensive and defensive player efficiency for everyone on his roster. Leone, who majored in economics, loves numbers, especially when it comes to his basketball team.

Being able to accurately track Player Efficiency Rating is helpful for Leone to determine who his better depth players are, though it can sometimes put his great players in a negative light. Brian Sortino, the 2016–2017 SUNYAC Player of the Year, is a victim of looking at solely at PER.

“Compared to his teammates, he’s middle of the pack,” Leone said. “Does that mean we’re not going to play him 40 minutes a game? No.”

Another thing Leone looks at is effective field-goal percentage.

Head coach Jason Leone coached his team to a 2017 SUNYAC Championship this year, with the help of advanced stats at his disposal. (Alexander Simone | The Oswegonian)
Head coach Jason Leone coached his team to a 2017 SUNYAC Championship this year, with the help of advanced stats at his disposal. (Alexander Simone | The Oswegonian)

This stat looks at more than just the amount of shots taken and missed, it places a higher value on shots that are easier to make, or on three pointers because they are worth that extra point.

The baseball team follows in the success of the baseball and hockey programs. Baseball is the sport that has always been the most numbers driven. Oswego State baseball is no different.

From Leone and Digby, there seems to be a small consensus on how coaches view advanced numbers. Junior outfielder Kevin Hylas views them a bit differently.

Hylas really does not like WAR as a stat, especially when it is the focal point of an argument. That does not mean he is completely opposed to numbers though.

“A big thing for me is K/BB ratio,” Hylas said. “Let’s say a guy has 40 innings under his belt with 38 walks. I’m not attacking first pitch, I’m going to make him get to two strikes and see what he can do with me.”

Hylas does not think advanced numbers apply to a cohesive team like the Lakers have. Early in the season, it can help sort out position battles, but once guys are rolling in the season, Lakers manager Scott Landers likes to keep the lineup consistent.

Access to these numbers is not something the Lakers lack. According to Hylas, Oswego State has the same ability to track numbers as Vanderbilt University. Landers is big on numbers, but Hylas says the rest of the team does not really care about them. He is adamant that a player’s ability cannot be accurately reflected by numbers.

Analytics are good for what they are, which is another side of player and performance evaluation. But the consensus with these three teams on campus is that they are not an end-all, be-all of evaluation.

“Everybody wants to try to figure something out that nobody else has,” Leone said.

But this can be problematic at the Div. III level. Trying too hard to find that edge can lead to over analyzing and trying to reach for something too far overhead.

What is clear though is that as professional sports evolve, other levels will try to adapt. And in five years, access for smaller programs should be larger than now. As younger minds gain power, the analytics revolution should continue to grow and become larger than ever.