It’s that time of year again; Oscar season is almost over. With the show, hosted this year by Chris Rock, coming Feb. 28, the Academy recently announced its nominees for the 88th annual show. As always, there were a lot of surprises. Without getting into the controversy surrounding the nominations, let’s focus on the nominees themselves.
“Spotlight” has been the early favorite in the race leading up to the nominations, and it could still easily be considered the front-runner. It won the Screen Actor’s Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture and with a surprise nomination for Mark Ruffalo (most felt the votes would be split between him and Michael Keaton), it shows that the Academy still has admiration for it.
However, “The Revenant,” “The Big Short” and the massively critically-acclaimed blockbuster “Mad Max: Fury Road” are all eyeing for victory as well. Alejandro G. Innaritu’s “The Revenant” is leading the pack of nominations with 12 and “Mad Max” is close behind with 10. A nomination for director George Miller gives “Mad Max” an unexpected edge as well, especially considering Innaritu, also nominated, just won last year.
“The Revenant” and Innaritu won the award for Best Picture-Drama and Director at the Golden Globes. The Director’s Guild Awards will be a huge factor in who wins Best Director and what has an edge in Best Picture. “The Big Short” won the Producer’s Guild Award, which gives it an unexpected boost in the race for Best picture.
In the end, it will most likely come down to a race between “Spotlight” and “The Revenant,” with Miller taking home Best Director for “Mad Max: Fury Road.” “The Big Short” doesn’t quite have the pull that a Best Picture win would take.
As for the acting categories, most, if not all, are a lock: Leonardo DiCaprio for “The Revenant,” Brie Larson for “Room” and Sylvester Stallone for his supporting performance in “Creed.” Idris Elba won the SAG for best supporting actor, but he isn’t nominated for the Oscar, which leaves Stallone still the front runner. If any of these actors don’t win, it will be a huge upset.
The only acting category that is still up in the air (but not really) is supporting actress. The best bet is Alicia Vikander, who won the SAG. Her closest competition is Rooney Mara who has gotten a lot of attention for “Carol” (which was unexpectedly snubbed for Best Picture which may ruin her chances) and Kate Winslet, who won the Globe for “Steve Jobs.” The lack of love for that film by the Academy, though (and the lack of commercial success), will probably leave Winslet without an award come Oscar night. Aaron Sorkin wasn’t even nominated for his screenplay, which seemed like a sure thing. He won the Globe and was nominated for the Writer’s Guild Award.
Also, when taking into consideration that Winslet won the Globe when Vikander wasn’t nominated (she was nominated in the leading actress category, whereas she’s nominated in supporting at the Oscars), it makes Vikander’s Oscar win more of a reality. Not to say that the Globes are a solid indication of who would win Oscar Sunday (they’re not usually), but the odds seem to be in Vikander’s favor.
As for the aforementioned screenplay nominations, with Sorkin out, it’s up in the air who will win for Best Adapted Screenplay. The nominees are “Room,” “The Martian,” “Carol,” “The Big Short” and “Brooklyn.” Without a Best Picture nomination, a win for “Carol” seems unlikely, as does a win for the more effects-driven “The Martian,” leaving the other three to battle it out.
That leaves Original Screenplay, which, if we’re deciding that “Spotlight” is a front runner for Best Picture, leaves that to be the front runner for Screenplay.
Return here to the Oswegonian for the issue before Oscar Sunday on Feb. 28 with predictions of winners from the Laker Review staff. Until then, happy Oscar season.
